Around a third of the growth in LNG occurs over the next four years as a series of in-flight projects are completed.
Around a third of the growth in LNG occurs over the next four years as a series of in-flight projects are completed, BP said in its last “
Energy Outlook
” report released on 25-Jan. “Strong growth is led by US and Australia, with demand remaining concentrated in Asia.”
BP predicted that natural gas will grow strongly over the next 20 years, moving to a globally integrated gas market, held together by LNG as global LNG supplies grow strongly between now and 2035, led by growth in the US (19 BCF/D) and Australia (13 BCF/D).
After a temporary lull while this initial wave of LNG supplies is absorbed, growth is assumed to resume at a more moderate pace while there is a risk that this second wave of LNG supply growth will be slow to materialize, causing a temporary period of tightness within LNG supplies. “Global LNG supplies grow strongly over the next 20 years, led by growth in the US.”
Asia remains the largest destination for LNG with China, India and other Asian countries all increase their demand for LNG, helping gas grow faster than either oil or coal in each of these economies, the UK-based major said in its outlook report, adding that Europe also makes increasing recourse to LNG to help meet the growing gap caused by declines in its domestic production.
BP has projected that LNG grows seven times faster than pipeline gas trade, such that by 2035 it accounts for around half of all globally traded gas - up from 32% now as in oppose to the pipeline trade, LNG cargoes can be redirected to different destinations in response to fluctuations in demand and supply.
“Australian LNG supplies are normally likely to be absorbed within Asia. US LNG exports are likely to be more diversified, providing the marginal source of gas for markets in Europe, Asia and South and Central America. As such, US gas prices are likely to play a key role in anchoring gas prices in a globally integrated market.”
