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Global LNG Developments in 2006 - Some key points:
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According to the Cedigaz Data; World natural gas marketed production grew by 2.9% and reached 2.93 TCM. Sustained economic growth and growing gas needs to cover demand from various markets (in particular power generation) explain the significant consumption increase outside most of the OECD region. Global LNG Trade rose 11.7% to 211 BCM (158.7 MMT), far more than its average annual increase of 7.7% over the past decade. LNG accounted for much of the world gas trade growth. Share of LNG in the world gas consumption held fairly level at 23.8% and accounted for 7.2% of total produced gas. Meanwhile, international pipeline gas trade grew by only 2.5% to 886 BCM. It accounts for 30.2% of the world marketed gas production. In Europe and Asia, LNG imports rose substantially, posting respective growth of 15.1% and 11%, while LNG imports into US dropped by 7.6% to 12 MMT. The decline in US imports indicates that Asian buyers were willing to pay more than US Henry Hub futures prices to secure cargoes to satisfy their robust demand growth. Japan, the world's largest LNG consumer, imported 62.1 MMT, a 7% increase from 2005. And South Korea, the world's second-largest LNG consumer, imported 25.3 MMT, a 13.5% increase from 2005. Meanwhile, share of Japan in the Global LNG Trade dipped to 39.4% from 40.7% in 2005 but South Korea maintained its 16% share. US imports of LNG was around 12 MMT in 2006, down 7.6%, compared with a 3.2% down in 2005 and 25% growth in 2004. However, it seems that the US will reverse this trend in 2007. Qatar overtook Indonesia as the world's biggest supplier. Qatar is now the world's largest LNG producer with a total capacity of 30.7 MMT/Y from both the Rasgas and Qatargas ventures. It has several expansion projects, including the Qatargas 2, 3 and 4 ventures, to more than double capacity to 77 MMT/Y by 2010, which will further cement its lead producer in the LNG market. According to the IEA Data; IEA data -that is almost the same with our conclusion- shows that current world LNG operational capacity is about 180 MMT. It means that there was 23 MMT idle production capacity in 2006. But it should be noted that due to some technical & political problems there is a considerable gap between the world nominal and operational LNG production capacity. About 11% of nominal LNG output capacity was lost in 2006 due to a mix of slower-than-scheduled construction and unscheduled shutdowns. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy Data; World gas production in 2006 was up more strongly that it had been for many years, by some 3%, led by rapid growth among independent producers in Russia. Global gas consumption grew 2.5% in 2006, below the 3.4% growth seen in 2005 but close to the 10-year average. LNG imports in Asia, the world's largest LNG market, rose by 10%, while European imports rose by 20%. Egypt, Nigeria, Qatar and Australia saw the largest increases in LNG exports. US imports of LNG slipped in 2006 to 16.56 BCM. Strong natural gas prices trimmed industrial demand causing a 1.7% overall decline in US gas consumption in the year despite an increase in gas used for power generation. European gas consumption also fell, due to a combination of warmer-than-normal weather and high prices. Sharp consumption declines were seen in the UK, where an early 2006 price spike promoted a switch to coal, and in eastern European countries, which saw increases in contracted prices. Russian gas demand, which was almost as large as the total consumed in the whole Asian Pacific region, increased by 7% in 2006, accounting for 40% of the global increase. China's gas consumption grew by more than 20%, to 55.6 billion cubic meters. According to the GIIGNL Data; Spot and short-term accounted for 16% or 438 cargoes of the world LNG trade in 2006. That's up from the 348 cargoes or 13% of 2005 trade, 14% of 2004 trade and 11.6% of 2003 trade. Egypt accounted for 24% of the spot and short-term LNG trade. 76 new LNG routes (between LNG plants and terminals) opened from a total of over 230 routes operated in 2006. According to the LNG World Shipping; The world fleet of LNG carriers is expanding exponentially. The numbers crossed the 200-vessel mark in April 2006 and is set to increase to 300 by the end of 2008. It took 34 years to 1998 for the in-service fleet of LNG carriers to reach 100 vessels, then eight years to the current level. The next 100 ships, however, will take just two more years to enter service. Commissioning of LNG terminals in Mexico (Altamira), China (Guangdong), Turkey (Aliaga), and Spain (Sagunto) opened up new LNG import nodes in 2006. At the end of 2006, there were 20 LNG plants in operation, 9 under construction and 12 planned to be built. And there were 56 LNG terminal in operation, 17 under construction and 32 planned to be built. Data monitor reports the US currently has five LNG terminals operating with combined capacity of 60.3 BCM/Y. “However, in 2006 these were vastly underutilized,” with imports amounting to only about 29% of total capacity. The underutilization of so many terminals which proposed to be constructed in the US can potentially increase the risk of volatility in the industry if LNG demand growth will not be maintained or increased, the report said. LNG Developments in the Statistical Graphs:
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