EM: economic growth and gas reshaping demand through 2040

ExxonMobil has released its “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040” in December 2011. The super-major said this year's outlook reveals several trends that will influence how the world uses energy over the coming decades. LNG Times has summarized these trends as follows:

• Energy demand to be about 30 percent higher in 2040 versus 2010 as population grows and global GDP doubles; demand in developing nations such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies rises nearly 60 percent.

• While oil will remain the most widely used fuel, less-carbon-intensive fuels, particularly natural gas, gain market share, while coal peaks and begins a decline for the first time in modern history.

• Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel, and demand will increase by about 60 percent from 2010 to 2040. Growth is particularly strong in the Non-OECD countries in the Asia Pacific region, where demand for natural gas is expected to triple over the next 30 years.

• Gas from shale and other unconventional rock formations will account for 30 percent of global gas production by 2040.

• Energy demand growth would be more than four times the projected 30 percent without expected gains in efficiency. Efficiency is the key reason why energy demand will rise by only about 1 percent a year on average even as global GDP rises by nearly 3 percent a year.

• By applying innovation and technology, the world does not need to choose between economic growth and environmental stewardship

• Rising demand for electricity is identified as the single largest influence on energy trends. ExxonMobil projects that global electricity demand will rise by 80 percent through 2040 as economies and living standards improve, and consumers switch to electricity from other sources such as oil, coal or biomass. By 2040, 30 percent of the world's electricity will be produced using natural gas.

IEA urged the world to change its policy direction

Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system, the International Energy Agency warned in its latest World Energy Outlook (WEO) released on 9-Nov-2011.

“There is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing.”
"Governments need to introduce stronger measures to drive investment in efficient and low-carbon technologies. The Fukushima nuclear accident, the turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010 which pushed CO2 emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge," the IEA noted in its WEO.

Primary energy demand increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035, with 90% of the growth in non-OECD economies. China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer: it consumes nearly 70% more energy than the US by 2035, even though, by then, per capita demand in China is still less than half the level in the US, according to the WEO's central new policies scenario.

The IEA reported that the future for natural gas is more certain as its share in the energy mix rises and gas use almost catches up with coal consumption.

One country set to benefit from increased demand for gas is Russia. However, key challenges for Russia are to finance a new generation of higher-cost oil and gas fields and to improve its energy efficiency. While Russia remains an important supplier to its traditional markets in Europe, a shift in its fossil fuel exports towards China and the Asia-Pacific gathers momentum.

If Russia improved its energy efficiency to the levels of comparable OECD countries, it could reduce its primary energy use by almost one-third, an amount similar to the consumption of the UK. Potential savings of natural gas alone, at 180 BCM/Y, are close to Russia's net exports in 2010, the IEA remarked.

IEA eyes greater role for gas until 2030

International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that as supply and demand factors increasingly point to a future in which natural gas plays a greater role in the global energy mix.

In a special report released in June 2011, the IEA examines the key factors that could result in a more prominent role for natural gas in the global energy mix, and the implications for other fuels, energy security and climate change.

The IEA has presented a scenario in which global use of gas rises by more than 50% from 2010 levels and accounts for more than a quarter of global energy demand by 2035. However, the agency also strikes a cautious note on the climate benefits of such an expansion, noting that an increased share of gas in the global energy mix is far from enough on its own to put the world on a carbon emissions path consistent with a global temperature rise of no more than 2 degrees Celsius.

"We have seen remarkable developments in natural gas markets in recent months. There is a strong potential for gas to take on a larger role, but also for the global gas market to become more diversified and therefore improve energy security," said IEA executive director, Nobuo Tanaka.

The wake of the incident at Japan’s nuclear power plants and the likelihood of a reduced role for nuclear in some countries, in the most recent case in Germany, have created considerable opportunities for greater future use of natural gas globally, depending on the interaction between economic and environmental factors and policy interventions in the market.

The IEA reported that new factors could support a more positive future outlook for gas. These include ample availability of gas (much of it unconventional), which lowers average gas prices, implementation by China of an ambitious policy for gas use, lower growth of nuclear power and more use of natural gas in road-transport.

“China's natural gas demand alone rises from about the level of Germany in 2010 to match that of the entire EU in 2035. To meet the growth in demand, by 2035 annual gas production must increase by 1.8 TCM, about three times the current production of Russia. Conventional natural gas will continue to make up the greater part of global production, but unconventional gas becomes increasingly important, meeting more than 40% of the increase in demand.”

Global natural gas resources are vast, widely dispersed geographically and can help improve energy security. All major geographical regions have recoverable natural gas resources equal to at least 75 years of current consumption. However, timely and successful development of these resources depends on a complex set of factors, including government policy choices, technological capability and market conditions.

Based on available data, the IEA has estimated that shale gas, produced to proper standards of environmental responsibility, has 3.5% higher "well-to-burner" emissions than conventional gas.

When replacing other fossil fuels, natural gas can lead to lower emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants.

EIA: more shale gas, less gas imports

EIA reported that domestic shale gas resources support increased natural gas production with moderate prices and it pushes down the gas and LNG imports.

Shale gas production in the US grew at an average annual rate of 17 percent between 2000 and 2006. Early success in shale gas production was achieved primarily in the Barnett Shale in Texas. By 2006, the success in the Barnett shale, coupled with high natural gas prices and technological improvements, turned the industry focus to other shale plays.

The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies has made it possible to produce shale gas economically, leading to an average annual growth rate of 48 percent over the 2006-2010 period, EIA said.

Shale gas production continues to increase strongly through 2035, growing almost fourfold from 2009 to 2035. While total domestic natural gas production grows from 21.0 TCF in 2009 to 26.3 TCF in 2035, shale gas production grows to 12.2 TCF in 2035, when it makes up 47 percent of total US production—up considerably from the 16-percent share in 2009, EIA revealed in its recent Annual Energy Outlook 2011, released in April 2011.

The estimate for technically recoverable unproved shale gas resources in the Reference case is 827 TCF. Although more information has become available as a result of increased drilling activity in developing shale gas plays, estimates of technically recoverable resources and well productivity remain highly uncertain.

Over the past decade, as more shale formations have gone into commercial production, the estimate of technically and economically recoverable shale gas resources has skyrocketed. However, the increases in recoverable shale gas resources embody many assumptions that might prove to be incorrect over the long term.

Meanwhile, the US potential gas committee (PGC) has increased its estimate of US natural gas resources to 2,170 TCF, an 89-TCF rise from 2008 that was largely attributed technological advances tied to shale gas.

The PGC reported that at the end of 2010, the US gas resources included 1,739 TCF of traditional reservoirs, conventional, tight sands and shale plays, and 159 TCF of coal-bed methane.

The US Gas Supply (TCF/Y)	The US Shale Gas Supply vs. Gas Imports (TCF/Y)	The US LNG Imports Trend (TCF/Y)
Source: LNG Times, Data: EIA

Woodside sees strong LNG market

Woodside predicted a robust market for LNG for at least the next 15 years, with the global LNG market to grow from about 210 MMT produced in 2010 to total demand of about between 390 and 460 MMT/Y in 2025.

“Our view is consistent with the majority of industry forecasts,” said Woodside’s Chairman Michael Chaney on 26-Apr-2011. “Underpinning this growth in demand for LNG is continued global population growth and improving standards of living, especially in our key Asia-Pacific markets.”

It is also supported by demand for cleaner sources of energy. While the markets of Japan and South Korea will continue to be the core of the region’s LNG market, growth will come from Taiwan, China, India and new entrants such as Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, Chaney has noted.

“Malaysia and Indonesia, better known as suppliers of LNG, will also become customers in the next few years.”

Chaney reminded that recent events in Japan have put pressure on short-term and long-term LNG supplies. It will take a new project the size of the North West Shelf or Browse to come on line every year for the next 10 years to meet the demand we see in the market.

While the focus of Woodside’s marketing activities will remain on long-term sales agreements, the start up of Pluto will allow the company to become more active in the short-term market. Spot sales now make up 25% of global LNG output, Chaney said.

EIA: the US gas output will grow through 2035

The US expanding domestic shale gas resources are expected to lead to increased domestic natural gas production at lower prices, according to the EIA’s early release of its 2011 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

According to the primarily report, which was published on 15-Dec-2010, the technically recoverable unproved shale gas resource is 827 TCF, which is 474 TCF larger than estimated in last year’s AEO.

New technologies that let natural-gas producers drill horizontally and fracture the rock formations with injections of water, sand and chemicals account for the increase.

Growth in natural gas extracted from shale formations will drive an increase in domestic natural gas production from 21.50 TCF in 2009 to 26.78 TCF in 2035. Production from shale is expected to grow to 12 TCF in 2035, more than offsetting a decline in conventional production.

However, EIA expected that natural gas prices at the Henry Hub will increase from the 2009 level of $3.95/MMBTU to $4.81/MMBTU in 2015, $5.18 in 2020 and $7.19/MMBTU in 2035. Last year’s forecast for prices in 2035 was $8.88/MMBTU.

Natural gas and renewable power plants will comprise the majority of generation capacity additions, according to the AEO. The share of generation from natural gas increases from 23 percent in 2009 to 25 percent in 2035.

The AEO is based on a reference case assuming the use of technology that is current or reasonably expected to become available over the next decade. Additionally, the reference case does not include the effects of possible future policies.

According to the EIA's “International Energy Outlook 2010” (Published in May 2010):

• World energy consumption will increase 49% by 2035, driven mainly by growing energy use in rapidly developing countries such as China and India.

• China and India were among the nations least affected by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world’s economic and energy demand growth into the future, EIA said. In 2007, China and India together accounted for about 20% of total world energy consumption and the report projected the two countries’ energy use will more than double by 2035, when they will account for 30% of total world energy use.

• The EIA reported that oil, gas, coal and other fossil fuels will still provide more than 75% of total global consumption by 2035 though hydroelectric and wind power would be the two fastest-growing sources of world energy supply during this period.

• Developing countries or non-OECD members will account for 87% of the increased energy consumption out to 2035, the EIA predicted.

• EIA projected that oil prices would average US$133/bbl by 2035. But it cautioned that prices could soar as high as $210/bbl or drop to as low as $51/bbl depending on certain supply and demand factors.

• The EIA forecasted that world natural gas consumption will rise 1.3% per year to 156 TCF in 2035 from 108 TCF in 2007. Tight gas, shale gas, and coal-bed methane supplies increase substantially, especially from the US, but also from Canada and China.

• EIA said that world coal consumption will rise to 206 quads in 2035 from 132 quads in 2007 for an average annual growth rate of 1.6%. China alone will account for 78% of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035.

According to the IEA’s 2009 world energy outlook (WEO-2009) published in November 2009:

• Global gas demand looks set to fall this year and the market is likely to remain oversupplied until 2015, despite a rise in demand when the economy begins to recover. Demand for gas for industry and power generation could fall sharply this year, particularly in Europe, leading to a possible 3 percent drop in global demand.

• Gas consumption could bounce back globally from next year, if the global economy recovers, rising by an average of 2.5 percent a year from 2010 to 2015 driven by increased gas burning for electricity generation. However, gas supply is still likely to swamp demand until the latter part of the next decade, keeping prices low and threatening investment in new production facilities that will be needed later. Much of the oversupply would be a result of the US losing its appetite for imported gas. Gas exporting nations ramped up their investment in LNG industry on the belief that the US would need substantially more supply in the coming years. But the development of unconventional or shale natural gas in the U.S. has changed that outlook.

• The recent rapid development of unconventional gas resources – notably shale gas – in North America has transformed the gas-market outlook. “Unconventional gas is unquestionably a game-changer in North America with potentially significant implications for the rest of the world,” IEA said. The share of unconventional gas in total US gas output jumped from 44% in 2005 to around 50% in 2008 and, in the Reference Scenario, is projected to rise to almost 60% in 2030. The boom in North American unconventional gas production, together with the recession’s impact on demand, is expected to prolong the glut of gas supply for the next few years.

• Natural gas is set to continue to play a bridging role in meeting the world’s sustainable energy needs. In the Reference Scenario, gas demand rises by 41% from 3 TCM in 2007 to 4.3 TCM in 2030.

• The analysis of WEO-2009 shows that the annual under-utilization of inter-regional pipeline and LNG capacity could rise from around 60 BCM in 2007 to 200 BCM by 2015. This glut could have far-reaching consequences for the structure of gas markets, with suppliers to Europe and Asia-Pacific coming under pressure to modify pricing terms under long-term contracts, to de-link gas prices from oil prices, sells more gas on a spot basis and to cut prices to stimulate demand.

• Proven world gas reserves at the end of 2008 are estimated to be more than 180 TCM, equal to about 60-year production at current rates, with over half located in just three countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar. An analysis of the 600 largest gas producing fields, which account for 55% of global output, indicates that "close to half of the world's existing production capacity will need to be replaced by 2030 as a result of depletion -- the equivalent of twice current Russian production".

On 8 Oct. 2009, BP CEO, Tony Hayward, said that identifying and securing the role of gas in the world’s energy mix out to 2030 is industry’s challenge. Alternative energies will play a role but exactly what remains to be defined. Wind and solar supply to power generation is intermittent and can play a role in supply, but gas—especially now—is dependable. Reserves estimates are rising sharply. “We must increase gas use,” said Hayward. It has the greatest potential at the lowest cost all with technologies available today. We also must take the carbon out of energy supply today and “be realistic” about how much that process costs.

On 6 Oct. 2009, Qatargas CEO, Faisal Al-Suwaidi said the postponement of planned LNG production plant amid the current global slump in natural gas prices will lead to tight supplies by 2015. The consuming nations needed to prepare themselves for the coming tight supply situation and the global gas industry has to avoid past errors and keep investing in new capacity to meet long term demand, Al-Suwaidi said. Demand for gas would continue to grow as countries diversify energy supplies and add LNG to the mix as a way to safeguard against supply disruptions from gas delivered over pipelines. Suwaidi expects demand to continue to rise in China and India, helping compensate for decreasing or stable demand in other countries. He said that de-bottlenecking of the operating Qatargas’ LNG production trains could produce extra output totaling 12 MMT/Y by 2014 when a moratorium on new projects is lifted.

On 29 Sep. 2009, the Russian Institute for the Problems of Natural Monopolies (IPEM) said that direct state support for Gazprom's investment program would be more useful to the overall economy than lavishing money on the banking sector. Interfax quoted Yury Saakyan, general director of IPEM as saying that with demand for natural gas depressed  by the global financial crisis,  Gazprom  will  have  to  cut its investment program, which will reduce the  amount  of  orders  for  Russian  industry. The gas sector "is the biggest source of orders for Russian industry," he said. IPEM research concluded that Russian industry stands to lose 1.1 trillion rubles in orders in 2009-2030, and including the multiplier effect along the entire length of the production chains, the loss to industrial production will total 2.7 trillion rubles. That might result in lost revenue to the budget totalling 296 billion rubles in the period to 2030, including 42 billion rubles in 2009. Due to the shortfall in gas production during the next decade, Russia would cut supplies to its domestic market in favour of maintaining exports to Europe at contracted levels, IPEM recommended. IPEM reported that current investment in new gas fields and maintenance of Russia’s 50-year-old gas pipeline system is insufficient to secure gas supplies during the next decade, possibly resulting in a shortfall of 10-12 BCM/Y as early as 2015.

In May 2009, Tokyo Gas said that Japanese LNG demand is expected to grow 2-3% annually to 2013 as the global economy and domestic demand recovers, after falling in 2009 compared with 2008. Japan imported 69.2 MMT of LNG in 2008.

According to Eurogas report (published on 12 March 2009):

• Gas consumption in Europe increased 2.1% in 2008. The EU27 member states consumed 517 BCM of gas in 2008, compared with 506 BCM in 2007.

• After a particularly mild winter in 2007, temperatures returned to their seasonal norms, leading to a rise in heating demand.

• At the end of 2008, the total number of gas customers connected to the EU27 natural gas grid rose by 1% in comparison to 2007, to reach 112 503 900 customers.

• In most of the EU countries some trends can be distinguished in the first nine months of the year. Overall the residential sector registered stable consumption resulting mainly from a trade-off between generally colder weather and energy savings. The increase in the natural gas consumption could therefore be attributed to the higher demand in the power sector due to favorable natural gas prices against oil and coal. In all the EU countries however, the last quarter of 2008 saw significant slow down because of the drop of consumption in the industrial sector resulting from the economic crisis.

• Indigenous production in the EU27 increased by 1,8% to 202 BCM in 2008, mainly as a result of increase in the production in the Netherlands (10,9%) and Denmark (9,4%), which compensated the downward trend observed in most of the other EU producing countries.

• The highest percentage of gas supplied in the EU27 comes from indigenous production, covering 39% of the total net supplies in 2008. The main external sources of supply are Russia with 25%, Norway with 18% and Algeria with 10%. In total approximately 60% comes from western European fields.

According to the EIA's annual long-term Energy Outlook (Published in March 2009):

• The US gas imports to decline sharply by 2030.

• US net imports of gas—both in the form of Canadian pipeline gas and LNG from abroad—would decline to 3% of supply in 2030 from 16% in 2007.

• Imported LNG will face tough competition in the US from domestically produced gas through 2030 as tight sands and shale formations would contribute most to the country’s growing supplies.

• LNG imports will peak at 1.5 TCF in 2018, before declining to 0.8 TCF in 2030. By then, the US is expected to have sufficient regasification capacity to import 5.2 TCF.

• In the longer term, high LNG prices—which are tied to oil prices in many markets—and ample domestic natural gas supplies reduce US demand for LNG imports.

• Development of onshore unconventional gas would drive production growth as rising prices and improvements in drilling technology provide economic incentives necessary for exploitation of more costly resources. Unconventional gas production would increase to 56% of the domestic total in 2030, from 47% in 2007, as onshore production of conventional gas in the Lower-48 states tapers off.

• Most of the unconventional gas will come from tight sands, but shale gas production will increase more quickly, from 1.2 TCF in 2007 to 4.2 TCF in 2030. By then, EIA expects shale production to account for 18% of total US gas output.

• EIA predicts that offshore gas supplies will account for 21% of total domestic production in 2030, up from 15% in 2007. New drilling technology will cut the cost of exploring for gas in the US, increase production and ultimately lower wellhead gas prices.

On 5 Feb. 2009, BG CEO, Frank Chapman said the Group will overtake BP and Total to become the world’s third-largest LNG producer by 2015 as it plans to expand in Australia and Africa. By then, the UK company will lag behind Exxon Mobil and Shell in LNG production capacity, excluding national oil companies, Chapman said adding BG was the world’s eighth-largest LNG producer last year. “Global LNG demand is set to more than double to about 400 MMT/Y by 2020 and about 70 MMT/Y of new LNG capacity will be delivered worldwide by 2011. Around 150 MMT/Y in new supply will be gradually added from 2013-2014, Chapman said.  The UK company will deliver 80 percent of its LNG volumes this year and 75 percent next year under supply contracts as it shifts away from spot trading to term contracts to “lock in good margins,” Chapman said.

In Jan. 2009, BP's CEO, Tony Hayward, said that oil price in the range of $60-80/bbl is required in order to stimulate investment and ensure growth in the sector. During the next 20-year, the global energy industry will invest of the order of $25-26 trillion, so in the order of $1 trillion/year, to provide the energy the world will need for that time-frame, Hayward said.

According to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (Published in December 2008):

• Increased US natural gas development and higher gas consumption by electric utilities will define the supply and demand picture through 2030.

• The development of unconventional gas basins, offshore production along the US Outer Continental Shelf and gas from Alaska will offset declining imports of gas over the next two decades. Unconventional gas production, including shale gas, is projected to increase to 13.2 TCF in 2030 from 9.2 TCF in 2007.

• Domestic gas production is expected to total 23.7 TCF by 2030.

• EIA predicted that the net import share of total gas use will decline through 2030, from 16% in 2007 to less than 3% in 2030.

• Coal, oil and natural gas together are projected to meet 79% of total US primary energy supply in 2030, cutting that projection from the 85% share predicted in the Annual Energy Outlook.

On 21 Nov-2008, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) reported that the US natural gas production from shale plays could double in the next 10 years and provide 25% of the country's gas demand by 2020. NGSA vice chairman, Terry Ruder, said that the industry needs a "stable tax and regulatory environment" if shale plays are to realize their potential. According to the NGSA, current production from shale plays in the US is estimated at between 6 BCF/D and 8 BCF/D, about 10% to 12% of the predicted 2008 US demand. The US shale production is expected to double, reaching 15-20 BCF/D, with total reserve estimates ranging from 250 to 750 TCF. Devon Company has invested more than $10 billion in the Barnett Shale play in northern Texas and it is estimated that the gas industry as a whole will spend roughly $150 billion. NGSA repored that  there are about 20 major shale fields across the US. Meanwhile, Reuters quoted Wood Mackenzie as anticipated that more LNG should come into the US as demand in Asia and Europe slackens, which could slow the country indigenous gas development. While the global recession cuts into the world LNG demand, large volumes of extra production expected from Qatar in 2010 should find a home in the US, a market that can absorb imports even at times of low demand, This could lessen the need for unconventional gas production mainly from shale plays in the US. Wood Mackenzie's analysts had expected the US LNG imports to fall as the boom in shale gas production in the country ramped up production forecasts. But as the world falls into recession this could change.

According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2008, published in November 2008:

• Shortfalls in the availability of LNG could push up prices and encourage the faster development of indigenous resources in importing countries.

• Any new surge in investment in LNG production is unlikely to increase output of the fuel before 2015 because of the time needed to build new liquefaction trains.

• Worldwide LNG flows have doubled in the past decade and now meet 7% of total world demand for natural gas. The volume of LNG trade will rise to 340 BCM in 2015 and 680 BCM in 2030. It was 201 BCM in 2006. This surge in LNG trading will be lead by demand in the European Union, where indigenous gas production is declining.

• By 2030, the EU will depend on imports of natural gas, through LNG and pipeline, to meet 86% of its demand. EU gas imports will rise to 580 BCM by 2030 from 305 BCM in 2006. Most of the additional imports volumes in the period will come from the Middle East and Africa. Africa is likely to triple its gas exports to Europe by 2030, overtaking Russia as the largest supplier of gas to Europe. By then, imports from Russia and other FSU countries are expected to increase to 156 BCM/Y from 137 BCM in 2006, while imports from Africa are expected to rise much faster and reach 261 BCM/Y from 88 BCM in 2006. Supplies from the Middle East to Europe are also poised for rapid growth, and should rise from 12 BCM in 2006 to 61 BCM/Y by then.

• Gas production from the EU’s member countries is expected to fall to 99 BCM/Y by 2030 from 228 BCM in 2006, an average annual decline of 3.4%. EU gas demand is expected to rise 1% per year during the same period, to 681 BCM/Y from 532 BCM/Y.

• Gas demand is growing rapidly in China, which is expected to become a significant importer, boosting imports its Australian LNG imports to 35 BCM/Y by 2030 from 1 BCM/Y in 2006. China is also expected to import 63 BCM/Y of gas from Russia and other FSU countries in 2030 from nothing in 2006.

• Three countries: Russia, Iran and Qatar hold around 56% of the world's gas reserves. Some 25 fields worldwide hold almost half these volumes. Remaining reserves have more than doubled since 1980.

On 28-Oct-2008, American Gas Foundation reported that because of US natural gas demand increases ahead of domestic production and shortfall made by falling pipeline imports from Canada over the same period, LNG imports could top 13 BCF/D by 2016, up from around 1 BCF/D in 2008, capturing about 16 percent of US demand. According to the report, US gas demand is expected to hit 27.7 TCF of gas by 2016 -- a growth of 3.3% each year with domestic gas production increasing by only 2.1% each year. The report's price projections for Henry Hub gas prices show rises from 2010 through to 2016. "These prices will make the U.S. a premier market for LNG," it said. In the short term however, US imports are expected to remain low. Imports so far in 2008 are running at half the rate they did in 2007, as strong demand in Asia and high spot prices have sent Atlantic Basin cargoes to the Pacific Basin market.

On 23-Oct-2008, ConocoPhillips manager for global LNG marketing, Gerard Schuppert said there may be a shortage of LNG after 2012 because of a lack of new projects. Japan, South Korea and Spain, the world's three biggest buyers of LNG, may find it difficult to secure supplies of the fuel between 2012 and 2015, pushing prices higher, he said.

On 23-Oct-2008, Bloomberg quoted Andy Flower as saying that the decline in new project approvals, and the current financial crisis that's reduced lending to projects, may slow growth in LNG supplies to between 4% and 5% annually in 2013 to 2020. That's down from growth of as much as 9% in 2007 to 2012. Output may grow 4.5% to about 177 MMT this year, he said. Only six of the world's 17 LNG-producing countries showed an increase in exports of the fuel in the first nine months of this year, Flower said. LNG production growth has slowed because of technical glitches including flaring problems and heat exchangers failure at plants in Norway and Algeria, and reduced gas supplies at Nigeria, Indonesia, Egypt and Oman, Flower said.

On 7-Oct-2008, Bernstein Research reported that delays in the LNG production projects in the coming years will keep the market tight for the next 15 years. The supply/demand balance is set to tighten over the next 12 years, as incremental regasification capacity is likely to continue to outpace liquefaction capacity," the report said. Bernstein has estimated that costs of LNG production will rise from this year's average of $600/MT of LNG capacity to around $1,750/MT by 2020. According to the report, any more production capacity in Nigeria (i.e. NLNG train7&8, Brass LNG and Olokola LNG) could not be commissioned before 2015.

On 6-Oct-2008, Canadian Tristone Capital reported that growing gas production from North American shale plays may reduce the need for the US to import large volumes of LNG for the next five years. The advisory company has predicted that gas production growth from nine North America shale gas plays could add 24 BCF/D to North American gas production by 2018. “Inclusive of conventional and Gulf of Mexico declines, we see North American gas production peaking in 2012,” the report said.  “The average shale full-cycle supply cost is $5.10/MMBTU”.

In July 2008, Poten & Partners reported that the LNG industry is moving toward a larger spot market, which would account for about 20% of global trade by 2012. Spot trade has surged to 24 MMT/Y, or 13% of the 180 MMT/Y from just more than 2 MMT/Y or 2% of global LNG trade in 2000. The consultant predicts that spot trade would rise to 36 MMT/Y this year and to 56 MMT/Y in 2012. “Qatar will become a much bigger player in the spot market”. Last year, 70% of the spot cargoes traded globally came from the Atlantic Basin, where more recent projects have started up without destination restrictions on their supply. In 2006 and 2007, Asia Pacific became the major spot purchaser, accounting for 50% of demand. In the first four months of the year, 74% of spot LNG volumes sold originated in the Atlantic Basin, with Trinidad and Tobago and Egypt by far the largest suppliers of the cargoes. Japan was the largest spot purchaser, followed by South Korea.

According to a CERA report published in July 2008:

• European gas prices will remain explicitly linked to oil prices and this link will keep gas prices in Europe high for the foreseeable future.

• A stable, reliable and transparent alternative to an oil index has yet to emerge.

• Oil indexation provides the pricing mechanism for long-term contracts that supply at least 70% of Europe’s gas. Gas hubs are not yet liquid enough to provide an alternative to oil-indexation.

• In the longer term, LNG deliveries might help to de-link gas from oil.

• The introduction of new sources of gas into purchase portfolios may cause buyers to reconsider their purchasing strategy and put pressure on the oil link, but any such change will take time.

According to the US EIA International Energy Outlook, published in June 2008:

• Worldwide natural gas consumption is expected to increases 52% from 104 TCF in 2007 to 158 TCF by 2030 and a significant portion will be LNG.

• Much of the world’s growing demand for natural gas is projected to be met by increased production from non-OECD nations. Non-OECD countries will account for more than 90 percent of the world’s total growth in production to 2030. Significant increases in natural gas production are also projected for the countries of non-OECD Asia, but those supply increases are expected to be used largely for consumption within the region rather than for export.

• The industrial sector, which is the world’s largest consumer of natural gas, will account for 43 percent of projected natural gas use by 2030.

• Electricity generation will account for 35 percent of the world’s total natural gas consumption in 2030.

• The Middle East and Africa will be at forefront of the trend towards LNG. Natural gas production in the two regions combined will increase by 21.0 TCF by 2030. But their combined demand for natural gas will increase by only 9.9 TCF.

• In the absence of national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase from 123 quadrillion BTU in 2005 to 202 quadrillion BTU in 2030, at an average annual rate of 2%. Coal is the main energy rival of LNG in the power sector.

• Coal’s share of world energy use has increased sharply over the past few years, largely because of strong increases in coal use in China, which has nearly doubled since 2000 and is poised to increase strongly in the future. With its large domestic base of coal resources and continuing strong economic growth, China alone will account for 71 percent of the increase in world coal consumption. The US and India, both of which also have extensive domestic coal resources, each will account for 9% of the world increase.

On 19 June 2008, Total Gas & Power's vice president, Philippe Sauquet said that North America, Europe and Asia would all see double-digit growth in LNG demand through 2015. declining gas production in the US will drive LNG demand to 13 BCF/D by 2015, Sauquet said. As the North Sea gas fields continue to be depleted, European LNG demand would increase to 16 BCF/D by about 2015, he said. Asian LNG imports would increase to about 23 BCF/D by about 2015 because of problems with Japanese nuclear plants, as well as greater demand from China, India and other new entrants into the LNG market, Sauquet added. As global LNG demand grows, arbitrage opportunities would become the rule, he said. Total’s LNG production is predicted to grow 13% a year, from less than 10 MMT/Y in 2006 to about 20 MMT/Y around 2015, Sauquet said.

In June 2008, South Korea’s Knowledge Economic and Trade Ministry said that the country's LNG demand is expected to rise 16% by 2020, with the fuel accounting for 15.4% of the country’s primary energy consumption by that time, compared with 13.3% now. S. Korea intends to increase its LNG storage capacity to 8.86 MMCM in 2012, from 5.16 MMCM last year, in a bid to stabilize the country’s LNG supply.

In June 2008, Woodside Petroleum said the LNG market will stay tight until 2015 and possibly beyond, driven by rising demand and delays in supply projects. The market is buoyant and long-term LNG contract prices are approaching the crude oil equivalent, Woodside said. The introduction of a price on carbon could push LNG prices beyond crude, it said.

According to Canadian Gas Association (Natural Gas Markets - Price and Supply report released on 22 May 2008):

• Despite recent upward pressure on natural gas prices, additional supplies, particularly from unconventional sources, expanding LNG import capabilities and increasing investment in natural gas storage will keep the market in balance over the longer term. North America continues to have an ample supply of natural gas with expected declines in some conventional sources of supply being offset by stronger than expected performance by other unconventional supplies. Current prices are also drawing investment into exploration and development and increasing the supply of natural gas in the region. Unconventional supplies such as shale gas, coal bed methane and gas from waste are becoming increasingly economic in the present environment. Natural gas will continue to play a key role in meeting the energy needs of consumers.

In May 2008, Michael Juden, a senior gas analyst for McKinsey Consulting said that the US will need to import more LNG in the short and medium term to meet growing gas demand for power generation, and it would have to pay global prices linked to oil to get those supplies, rather than lower Henry Hub spot prices. “North America will have to compete with Europe and Asia to fill its supply gap.” To better compete for LNG supplies in such a market, US utilities may have to sign long-term LNG contracts at prices that would not necessarily be linked to the Henry Hub but only Massachusetts allows them to buy LNG under long-term contracts, Juden said.

McKinsey anticipates that by 2015, the US and Canada would have a combined gas supply gap of 22 BCF/D, which could not be met by increasing domestic production. The key driver for the growing gap would be increased gas-fired power generation. Due to the environmental concerns, it has become extremely difficult to build more coal-fired generation plants, and nuclear plants take at least 10 years to develop because of regulatory obstacles, McKinsey said.

McKinsey estimates that the cost of building a new LNG production plant has reached more than $1,200/MT, meaning that producers would need at least $8-$9/MMBTU for long-term contracts to get a desired rate of return of 13%. There has been talk that liquefaction costs could soon reach $1,500/MT, McKinsey said, which would lead to even higher LNG prices. Recently, Citigroup had estimated that the cost of developing the Gorgon LNG project would be about $1,800/MT. In 2005, the cost of building a liquefaction plant had dipped to about $200/MT but since then the cost skyrocketed, primarily because of soaring costs for stainless steel and compressors. The price of stainless steel increased 45-60% in 2006 and another 25-45% last year and another 20-30% increase is predicted for this year. And the price for large compressors and turbines increased 15-25% in 2006 and 8-20% last year.

McKinsey said the gas industry is expected to grow 2%/Y through 2030, with 70% of that growth coming from LNG. From 1995 to 2004, the LNG industry grew 7.3%/Y, and it is expected to grow 6.6%/Y through 2030.

In April 2008, Exxon Mobil said that LNG will meet about one-third of Asia's natural gas requirements by 2030, with demand boosted by increased use among electricity generators. Global LNG demand will more than triple between now and 2030. Natural gas will account for about a quarter of global energy demand by 2030, up from about 20 percent now.

In Mar. 2008, PFC Energy reported that the east coast of N. America is facing a significant oversupply of LNG import capacity because of a shortage of supply and the situation will persist well into the next decade. As new terminals are constructed, regasification capacity will exceed the supply available from producers in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East with a gap between regasification capacity and available LNG as great as 90 MMT/Y by 2012. The gap would reduced over the longer term, but by 2017 is still expected to be around 50 MMT/Y, PFC said. While regasification terminals proved easier to develop than expected, escalating costs have slowed the build up of liquefaction projects.

In March 2008, Andy Flower, LNG senior consultant said that the LNG market is expected to remain in sellers’ favor beyond 2013, with anticipated growth in the LNG production reduced by more than half, to about 4% a year, due to slow progress in proposed liquefaction projects. The proposed projects faced the challenges of higher costs, which make the economics of some marginal at best; a shortage of gas supply as governments give priority to domestic gas uses over LNG exports; and unstable domestic governments, he said. However, liquefaction capacity is expected to grow at about 8% through 2012 because of the 99 MMT/Y of capacity that was being built at the end of last year, Flower said. Global LNG supply last year was about 10% lower than the nameplate capacities of all liquefaction plants due to a combination of technical problems at some plants [i.e. Norway and EG LNG] and shortage of gas supply at others [i.e. Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Oman, Egypt and Indonesia], Flower estimated. About 100 MMT/Y of receiving capacity is scheduled to come online this year, with North America accounting for nearly 70% of the additions, according to Andy Flower’s estimates. The US is expected to commission more than 50 MMT/Y of regasification capacity this year, he added.

According to the Natural Gas Council (March 2008):

• US natural gas consumption could jump by as much as 20% over the next 10 years if climate change legislation under consideration in Congress becomes law. Meanwhile, American Gas Association believes the Congress actions will have serious consequences for America's natural gas customers.

• EIA has estimated that the US would need to add 145 new nuclear reactor units in the next 22 years, while the NGC's review--citing political opposition driven by environmental and safety concerns--puts the number of new reactors at closer to 25.

On 11 Mar. 2008, Total Trading International's official, Yves C. Mayer said that Asian LNG importers could be faced with a combined annual supply shortfall of 43 MMT in 2015 even if all existing agreements (HOA) become firm sales contracts (SPA). That deficit could become even greater if there are delays to new liquefaction capacity or if existing contracts are not renewed. C. Mayer said Japan is faced with a 6 MMT/Y shortfall in 2015 even if its agreement deals for the Pluto and Gorgon projects are finalized. South Korea’s deficit is forecast at 9 MMT/Y and there are questions over whether it will be able to renew its current shorter term contracts with projects in Oman and Malaysia. Total predicts Taiwan will be 3 MMT/Y short of its demand in 2015. The best hope for new volumes available to Asian customers in 2013 and 2014 comes from PNG and Pluto LNG projects, C. Mayer said.

According to the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (December 2007):

• The agency cut its previous estimates for US LNG imports, saying it now expects LNG import to increase to 2900 BCF in 2030 from 583 BCF last year. Whilst in the Annual Energy Outlook 2007, EIA had anticipated that US imports of LNG would reach 4500 BCF by 2030.

• The agency has attributed the lower projection to “higher costs throughout the LNG industry, especially in the area of LNG production cost, and decreased US gas demand because of higher prices, slower economic growth and expected greater competition for supplies within the global LNG market.

• However the agency has anticipated a sharp rise in US LNG demand in the short term from about 800 BCF in 2007 to 3000 BCF in 2018.

• US LNG regasification terminals capacity would raise to 5200 BCF in 2009 from 1500 BCF in 2006. The terminals' utilization rate is expected to remain under 35% through 2013, after which it is expected to increase to 57% in 2017 and remain in the range of 55% to 58% through 2030.

On 4 Mar. 2008, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics anticipated that the country's LNG exports may slip to 14.8 MMT/Y in 2008, because of maintenance shutdowns at the NWS LNG plant and at the Darwin LNG plant. They should jump to 16.9 MMT/Y due to an expansion at the NWS plant and to 26 MMT/Y by 2012-13.

On 5 Mar. 2008, Exxon Mobil's Director for Europe, Richard Guerrant, said that LNG would make up about 20% of European's gas supplies by 2030. European gas demand was likely to rise by 1.1%/Y on average between 2005 and 2030.

According to UBS AG's report (December 2007):

• Global LNG production may rise less than expected until 2015 because of higher project costs, worsening shortages and boosting LNG prices. LNG production may rise by 9% per year through 2015, compared with the “consensus” estimate of about 10%.

• UBS’s forecasts assume a one-year delay to timings for projects that have not yet been approved for development, resulting in a potential supply shortfall of about 10 MMT/Y in 2010-2015, or 3% of global consumption. And a more pessimistic scenario of a two-year delay to the completion of new projects more than doubles the shortfall to 7%.

• Last year, LNG players deferred investments decisions on new supply projects as construction costs surged. “Shortages of labor and equipment are continuing to drive significant cost escalation and cause project delay.” The supply-demand balance becomes increasingly tight as new liquefaction projects suffer continuing delays. Eight projects may be sanctioned for development by the end of 2008, though that forecast may be “too optimistic.”

• BG Group and Woodside Petroleum are the two companies set to benefit most from the “positive” market outlook.

• PetroChina signing initial accords to buy LNG from the Gorgon and Browse LNG projects may be a “turning point” for the market as the accords indicated that China is now willing to sign contracts at prices which are close to oil price parity.

According to ExxonMobil Energy Outlook (November 2007):

• World energy demand during 2005-30 will rise by 1.3% per year. Natural gas will increase at about 1.7% per year and faster than either coal or oil. Growth rate of the World gas demand was 2.4% per year during 1985 to 2005.

• North America will see rapid decline in supplies of domestically produced natural gas. Europe is seeing a rapid deterioration in existing supplies from Russia and the North Sea.

• LNG will reach demand of about 500 MMT/Y balanced among Asia, North America, and Europe in 2030 from a supply of a bit more than 100 MMT/Y in 2005, with Asia dominating with about 75% of that amount. Global LNG demand will be doubled by 2010 and quadrupled by 2020.